5.16

Grade	Years	1st-3rd	1st-1st	3rd-3rd	3rd-1st
11d	58-67	9	/	/	/
12a	61-73	8	3	6	-6
12b	70-73	3	9	0	-3
12c	67-74	7	-3	1	-6
12d	75-78	3	8	4	1
13a	77-81	4	2	3	-1
13b	79-82	3	2	1	-2
13c	83-84	1	4	2	1
13d	84-85	1	1	1	0
14a	85-86	1	1	1	0
14b	87-89	2	2	3	1
14c	90-92	2	3	3	1
14d	91-93	2	1	1	-1
15a	96-01	5	5	8	3
15b	08-09	1	8	8	7
15c	12-13	1	4	4	3
15d	17- ?	6+	5	10+	4
TOT. AVG.	–>	3.5	3.4	3.5	0.1
15’s AVG.	–>	3.3+	5.5	7.5+	4.3
Long	–>	9	9	10+	7

Laid out in the columns above is the first ascent of a grade (starting with 11d and ending with 15d), followed by the year of the 1^st ascent and the year of the 3^rd ascent, then the number of years between the 1^st and 3^rd ascent, the number of years between the 1^st  ascent of one grade and the 1^st ascent of the next grade, the number of years between the 3^rd ascent of one grade and the 3^rd ascent of the next grade, and finally the number of years between the 3^rd ascent of a grade and the 1^st ascent of the next grade.

The final three rows lay out the average time in years of each column, followed by the average time in years focusing just on routes in the 5.15 range, and then, the longest time it took between benchmarks represented in each column.

The goal of collecting this data is to analyze and use it in order to calculate when we might see the 1^st 5.16.

If we look closely, we can see that moving from 5.15d to 5.16a is already breaking all the patters established over the last 65 years.  The average time it takes between a 1^st and 3^rd ascent of a route is 3.5 years.  It’s been over 6 years and we are yet to see someone send the 3^rd 5.15d.  There have been three other occasions where it has taken over 6 years to bag a 3^rd ascent, but it hasn’t happened for 50 years.  We see similar stats when moving from the 1^st ascent of one grade to the 1^st ascent of the next, as well as the 3^rd ascent of one grade to the 3^rd ascent of the next.  The averages are 3.4 years and 3.5 years respectively.  It’s been over 6 years since the 1^st 5.15d.  Six years isn’t unprecedented, but again it has been nearly 50 years since we’ve seen a gap like this.  We haven’t yet seen the 3^rd 5.15d, but it’s been over 10 years since the 3^rd 5.15c, and that stat is completely unprecedented.  There has never been a gap like this in the history of modern rock climbing.

History tells us that once we see the 3^rd 5.15d, the 1^st 5.16a will be right around the corner, as the average wait time between the 3^rd ascent of one grade and the 1^st ascent of the next is a meager 1.2 months.  In fact, historically speaking, 38% of all first ascent’s have come before the 3^rd ascent of the previous grade, leaving open the possibility that we will see the first 5.16a prior to seeing the 3^rd 5.15d.

When limiting our focus to patterns within the 5.15 grade, possible predictions remain just as hazy.  While the average time between benchmarks within the 15 range is higher than the average time between benchmarks all told, the time it has taken to get the 3^rd 5.15d is uncharacteristically high.  Again, it has been over ten years since achieving our 3^rd 5.15c.

There are several reasons for the current interval between benchmarks. One of the more prominent being that climbing a 5.16 is really hard!  Not to suggest that any of the other benchmarks have been easy but given our current human ability and current climbing technology, we may be approaching the limits of what is physically possible.

I’m pretty confident that we will see a human complete a 5.16, but I think that we are at a distinctive time in the history of rock climbing where it’s going to take a unique scenario to push the limits of what we are currently capable of.  That being said, I don’t think that past climbing accomplishments can provide reliable predictors of future success.  What we’ll need to look at goes beyond history and into scenarios that will take us into the future of climbing. 

When we’ll see the 1^st 5.16 remains a mystery, but how we’ll see it should be something we can figure out!  Stay tuned for Pat III!