5.16

Part I (The Data)

If we took a close look at the progression of grades in rock climbing, could we make an accurate prediction about when the first 5.16a will go?  I don’t doubt for a second that someone will send a 5.16.  I also believe that the person who is going to do it is already alive.  I’m not sure who it is or when it will be, but perhaps we can learn something by taking a closer look at the history of grade progression within rock climbing.

Early data on first ascents/red points is not entirely clear.  Consensus on grades wasn’t established until the mid 80’s.  There were different etiquette norms.  Travel was much more limited, thus regulating outsider repeatability.  The goals of climbers were very different as well.  That being said, predictive success based on the early greats may skew the data.  It’s still fun to think about, and worthy of including based on interesting historical feats.

It is tough to say exactly who sent the first ever 5.11d based on reasons noted above, but three routes stand out as very real possibilities.

• 1958 – Goliath 5.11d – located in the Burbage Rocks in South Yorkshire, England.  Don Whillans was able to achieve the send.
• 1962 – Vulcan 5.11d – located in Tremadog, Wales.  Sent originally by Barry Brewster.
• 1967 – Foops 5.11d – Located in Shawangunks, New York, USA.  This route is often considered the first consensus 5.11d put up by John Stannard.

Depending on when the first 5.11d was sent it is possible that the first 5.12a was already in the books.

• 1961 – Thimble 5.12a – Needles, South Dakota, USA.  Sent by one of theDIHEDRAL’s personal favorites John Gill who not only sent the world’s first 5.12, but also did it without using a rope.
• 1973 – Orchrist 5.12a – Almscliff, England.  Twelve years after Gill’s historic first, Hank Pasquill chimes in with his own 5.12a.
• 1973 – The Throne 5.12a – Shawangunks, New York, USA.  John Stannard pulls off another feat, moving into the 12 range, six years after being among the first to send a 5.11d.

The 1970’s saw great progression in climbing grades as climbers started moving through the 5.12 range all decade long.

• 1970 – English Hanging Gardens 5.12b – Big Rock, Lake Perris, California, USA.  John Gosling pushes California into the 5.12 range with this iconic send.
• 1973 – Kansas City 5.12b – Shawangunks, New York, USA.  Something about 1973 in the Gunks, but John Bragg has officially entererd the chat.
• 1973 – Constable’s Overhang 5.12b – Originally graded “Hard” Hank Pasquill turns out to have bagged his second 5.12 of the year.

Before the first 5.12b was established, the climbing world had already witnessed the first 5.12c.

• 1967 – Macabre Roof 5.12c – Ogden, Utah, USA.  Greg Lowe jumps on the scene with a flash. 
• 1974 – Paisano Overhang 5.12c – Suicide Rock, California, USA.  Sent by another climbing legend, John Long.
• 1974 – Super Crack 5.12c – Shawangunks, New York, USA.  Steve Wunsch bringing us back to the Gunks once again!  Ron Kauk had the first repeat of a consensus 5.12c three years later.

The progression of firsts starts to level out a little, and the difficulty level just keeps rising.

• 1975 – Psycho Roof 5.12d – Eldorado, Colorado, USA.  This route has only one ascent, due to a broken flake after Steve Wunsch busted into the door of the 5.12d range.  Wunsch, wasn’t just saying this was the first 5.12d by many accounts it is considered even harder.
• 1978 – The Pirate 5.12d – Suicide Rock, California, USA. Tony Yaniro.
• 1978 – Iron Cross 5.12d – Shawangunks, New York, USA.  John Bragg, bagging another historical route in the Gunks!

And we are entering a world where people can climb 5.13’s we are entering the 1980’s!

• 1977 – The Phoenix 5.13a – Yosemite, California, USA.  Ray Jardine is the first to send at this grade, what a beast!
• 1981 – Le Toit 5.13a – Baou de Auatre Ouro, France.  Patrick Edlinger, the first French Patrick to hit the mark.
• 1981 – Le Haine 5.13a – La Turbie, France. Patrick Berhault, the second French Patrick to hit the mark.

It wouldn’t take long for a few 5.13b’s to start going!

• 1979 – Grand Illusion 5.13b – Sugar Loaf, Lake Tahoe, California, USA.  Tony Yaniro gets us going.
• 1981 – 12 Boulevard du Vol 5.13b – Rochers de Freyr, Belgium.  Arnold t’Kint putting both himself and Belgium on the climbing map!  Manneken Pis!!!
• 1982 – Grand Illusion 5.13b – Sugar Loaf, Lake Tahoe, California, USA.  We are back for more of Grand Illusion, let this mark the beginning of the Wolfgang Güllich era!

Not only are we about to enter the era of Wolfgang, but we are also entering a new era of sport climbing.  Prior to 1983 routes were wholly trad, but fixed gear, here we come!

• 1983 – The Face 5.13c – Altmühltal, Germany.  Jerry Moffatt, making sure the world knows that the British are among the top climbers in the world.
• 1984 – Le Bidule 5.13c – Buoux, France.  Marc Le Menestrel reminding the British that the French are still here too!

Let the really really hard stuff commence!

• 1984 – Kanal im Rücken 5.13d – Frankenjura, Germany.  Wolfgang Güllich; It’s his world now, we’re just spectators!
• 1985 – Le Mans Sales 5.13d – Buoux, France. Marc Le Menestrel is just getting started!
• 1985 – Le Fluide enchanté 5.13d – Mouriès, France. Marc Le Menestrel gets the second and third ever consensus 5.13d WOW!

It’s been ten years since the first 5.12d and we are already jumping into 5.14’s, it’s like Smash Mouth once said “the years start coming and they don’t stop coming”!

• 1985 – Punks in the Gym 5.14a – Mount Arapiles, Australia.  That’s right this first 5.14 comes to us from Australia by none other than Wolfgang Güllich.  Oi oi oi!!
• 1986 – La Rage de Vivre 5.14a – Buoux, France.  Not to be outdone by his brother Marc, Antoine Le Menestrel can bring the goods as well!  Marc did however get the fourth consensus 5.14a.
• 1986 – To Bolt or Not to Be 5.14a – Smith Rocks, Oregon, USA.  Jean-Baptiste Tribout continues the French domination!

The French seem to be getting historic FA at every grade, but sometimes even the French need a break.  It’s a cool place now, and they say it gets colder.  You’re bundled up now, wait ‘til you get older (debating changing this article into a Smash Mouth appreciation piece).

• 1987 – Wallstreet 5.14b – Frankenjura, Germany. Wolfgang Güllich, who else?
• 1988 – Anaïs et le cannabis 5.14b – Saint Loup, Switzerland.  Swiss legend Fred Nicole with the second consensus 5.14b.
• 1989 – Agincourt 5.14b – Buoux, France.  Ben Moon coming through for the Brits, on French soil no less!

With Wolfgang working a harder grade, we get a new first for the 5.14c range.

• 1990 – Liquid Amber 5.14c – Pen Trwyn, Wales.  Jerry Moffatt gets the send.  He originally graded it a 5.14b, but it has since reached 5.14c consensus.
• 1990 – Hubble 5.14c – Raven Tor, Peak District, England.  Moffatt’s Climbing partner Ben Moon gets credit for the first consensus 5.14c, even though Liquid Amber was actually sent first.
•  1992 – Just Do It 5.14c – Smith Rocks, Oregon, USA.  Jean-Baptiste Tribout gets another historic send to his name.

Tragedy strikes in 1992, as Wolfgang Güllich died in a car accident at the age of 31, but not before he gets one more insane first under his belt!  As Smash Mouth once said; “Only shooting stars break the mold.”

• 1991 – Action Directe 5.14d – Frankenjura, Germany. Wolfgang Güllich. 
• 1992 – Om 5.14d – Schleier Waterfall, Austria.  Alexander Huber was as strong as they come and without a doubt the strongest climber around after the passing of Wolfgang Güllich.
• 1993 – Bain de Sang 5.14d – Saint Loup, Switzerland.  Fred Nicole starting to collect some landmark climbs!

After being on run of benchmarks over the last 15 years, moving into the 5.15 range took some time.

• 1996 – Open Air 5.15a – Scheier Waterfall, Austria. Alexander Huber originally thought this route to be 5.14d, but in 2008 once climbed and graded by Adam Ondra upgraded.  There is some question as to if it should count as the same route since rock faces can change so drastically over the time between Huber and Ondra’s sends.
• 1998 – Mutation 5.15a – Raven Tor, Peak District, England.  Steve McClure carrying the torch for England through a new era.  He originally graded this route as 5.14d, but it was later upgraded to 5.15a after Will Bosi got the first repeat of the route in October of 2021.
• 2001 – Realization 5.15a – Céüse, France.  Although the third 5.15a, Chris Sharma gets the first consensus 5.15a.  Let the Chris Sharma revolution begin!

2001 was two years after Smash Mouth released their 1999 hit All-Star, and it would be 7 years later that we reach grades of 5.15b.

• 2008 – Jumbo Love 5.15b – Clark Mountain, California, USA. Chris Sharma got there first, but Jumbo Love has since been repeated by Ethan Pringle, Jonathan Siegrist, and Seb Bouin.
• 2008 – Golpe de Estrado 5.15b – Siurana, Spain.  Alright Chris Sharma, we see you, 2008 is your year!
• 2009 – Neanderthal 5.15b – Santa Linya, Spain.  Chris Sharma…who else?

We are getting close to the highest grade sent to date, but we still have a little ways to go.  As we jump ahead a few years, a new kid came to play…only he isn’t playin!

• 2012 – Change 5.15c – Flatanger, Norway.  Adam Ondra has unlocked a new level!
• 2013 – La Dura Dura 5.15c – Oliana, Spain. Adam Ondra has done it again.
• 2013 – Vasil Vasil 5.15c – Moravsky Kras, Czech Republic.  Adam Ondra has done it again, again.

And now we reach the height of climbing…no pun intended!

• 2017 – Silence 5.15d – Flatanger, Norway.  Any guesses as to who broke into the 5.15d range?  You guessed it.  Adam Ondra!
• 2022 – DNA 5.15d – Verdon Gorge, France.  Seb Bouin, is the latest French climber to make his mark in the history books. 

Ondra and Bouin are the only two climbers in the world to send a consensus 5.15d, and no one has been able to repeat either of these routes.  Over time they may be graded harder or softer, but for now they remain the hardest routes ever sent.

So now, after looking at some of the top historical sends, what can we gather as to when we break the 5.16 plateau?  Stay tuned for Part II.

• Cover photo – Adrian Bailey
• History of sends – Wikipedia