5.16

UPDATE: About two hours after this post went live (9/20/23) Jakob Schubert sent Project Big, which may be the first 5.16. He hasn’t yet graded the route, and it could fall anywhere from 5.15c – 5.16a, but if this is the first 5.16, then history has been made! Congrats to Jakob no matter the grade, you are a true freak!

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We’ve looked at the history of notable first ascents over the last 80 years.  We dug deep into the data to see if there were any notable patterns which might help us predict when we might see the world’s first 5.16.  With nothing exact enough to make a reliable prediction, we are left with nothing more than a guess.  It’s been 6 years since Adam Ondra sent Silence (the world’s first 5.15d) and it could be another 6 before we break into the next plateau, the elusive 5.16.

Throughout the history of sport climbing, we’ve seen incremental leaps in human capability.  These leaps have been tied primarily to improvements in three distinct areas.  Training, diet, and technology are the measurable qualities of note.  Of course, there are lots of unquantifiables such as determination and grit, but I’d venture to guess that top level climbers throughout the ages have all been similarly gifted when it comes to the unmeasurables. 

Diet science/nutrition science, has significantly altered the landscape in every possible athletic endeavor.  Top climbers in the 1950’s were known to carry beer and liquor up the wall with them.  Back then, diet consisted of a sleeve of saltines, a raw egg, and can of sardines. For professional athletes at the highest levels today, there is a team of nutritionists laying out meal plans for every specific body/body type.  Gone are the days of licking a salt block for breakfast and then going out to break a record.  Without advancement in nutrition, it is debatable that we would have ever seen a 5.15d.

Climbers like John Gill, Wolfgang Güllich, and Lynn Hill changed the game when it came to training.  The results they achieved were undeniable, and climbers took note.  Today there are dozens of apps designed to help climbers train.  Training has become a multi-million-dollar industry.  The results continue persuade those who want to improve to follow suit.  Watching the workouts of the world’s top climbers is a lesson in discipline.  Professional climbers aren’t sending at their level by accident.  There are great anecdotes about climbers like Alex Megos and Adam Ondra training one particular muscle to make one particular move on one particular route, and it working.  Without advancement in training, it is debatable that we would have ever seen a 5.15d.

As technology improves, so too does climbing.  John Gill, a former gymnast brought chalk from the gymnastics world into climbing.  He sent the world’s first 5.12a in 1961.  Ever since, climbers have been looking for ways to gain an advantage in any way possible.  Major improvements include shoe design and shoe rubber, gear comfort, and gear weight.  It’s a lot easier to climb a hard route when you’re carrying less weight in more comfort and better shoes!  Without advancement in technology, it is debatable that we would have ever seen a 5.15d.

Concerning the elusive 5.16 I think we’ll continue to see improvement in nutrition, training, and technology, but we have become so good at all three, that the jumps in advancement are unlikely to be as drastic as they have been in the past.  Modest advancements could allow for enough of a leap to make a difference, but to climb consistently at the 5.15-5.16 grade we are going to need something more.  We’re going to need a freak!

Leonidas of Rhodes held the record of most Olympic gold medals of all time with 12.  He held that record since 152 BCE.  He held that record for 2,168 years, until 2016, when a freak of nature came along and took it.  Michael Phelps is a freak!  He had the longest standing world record in the 400m individual medley dating back to 2002.  That record was broken in July of 2023 by French Phenom Leon Marchand.  Freaks beget freaks!

In no way am I counting out the top climbers in the world. Climbers like Adam Ondra, Alex Megos, Stefano Gisolfi, Jakob Schubert, and Seb Bouin all have a very real chance of ticking the first 5.16.  But if they age out, there is an army of climbers they have inspired, climbers who are following their lead, their regimen, and their diet.  There are more rock climbers now than ever before, and among the up and comers, there are some freaks.  Climbers who will carry the torch as we continue to approach the limitations of human capability.

I’m not sure when it will happen¹, and I’m not sure who will do it², but it’s going to happen!

1. If I’m forced to guess…2026.
2. If I’m forced to guess…Ondra. Project Big is a line that folks like Ondra, Seb, and Schubert have been working. It has some potential to be the first 5.16 to go!